8 figure published yesterday by Brussels

Of course, the slowdown would spare person. But differences hiding behind the 1.8 figure published yesterday by Brussels. One can distinguish three groups of countries.

Those who are preparing

the worst

They are four. For them, not the slightest hope: their economy will contract by at least 4. Euro area, this is the case of the Ireland, former "Celtic Tiger", countries of the economic miracle as it prepares to see its gross domestic product (GDP) to collapse of 5, according to Brussels. With much relied on financial services and exports over the last decade, the country had to face jointly to the financial crisis and the decline in international trade. Added the bursting of the housing bubble. Domestic demand should not be spared in 2009 and Brussels sees little front rebound, at best, 2010.

The other three nations who should know a descent to the underworld are the Baltic countries. The Estonia, the Latvia and the Lithuania should be aware of the contraction of its GDP from 4.7, 6.9 and 4 respectively. This was, again, violent corrections after years of euphoria. With the return of the aversion to risk on the financial world, all three face sudden drying of credit, whereas this had fueled the growth of recent years. Housing starts down and internal demand is in berne.

The "big countries" face

a deep crisis

Even if they should be less suffer from the crisis than the Ireland or the Baltic countries, all will suffer hard and know contractions of their economies in the order of 2. The Germany will be the most affected with a decline of 2.3 GDP. World's leading exporter, it took head-on the collapse of international trade, which finally prompted Berlin to opt for the more ambitious recovery plan for Europe. The Italy, it also positioned partly on exports, although to a lesser extent, should see GDP decrease by 2, same as the Spain, which undergoes before any overturning of its market real estate. The France is in the same "family", with a contraction of about 1.8, and the Netherlands, whose decline should be 2. Also include Portugal ( 1.6), Belgium ( 1.9) or Austria ( 1.2): in 2009, the slump will install in the heart of the old Continent.

Survivors

the storm

Given the context, they may be pleased to continue to experience an economic boom. In euro area, they should be five. With 2.7 growth, the Slovakia could be champion of Europe. Even if it's a sharp slowdown growth was 10.4 in 2007 , the Slovakia seems less suffer that neighbours of the financial crisis. Accession to the euro, on January 1, is not for nothing, in the credibility gained in the financial markets. However, it will be not spared by the commercial downturn, including his car, extremely dependent on the European market sector. The Greece will, in turn, know near stagnation past a three, 0.2, while Cyprus, Malta and the Slovenia draw their PIN of the game with growth between 0.6 and 1.1. Note, the euro area, good resistance expected from countries of the "new Europe" are the Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Poland and the Romania, all that hope flirting with growth of 2. Must be borne in mind that they all had, in 2007, higher than 6 growth...