In other words the future of our pensions is already behind us

open large hood, the old engine already well patched puzzled mechanics team examined him. As he flees again on all sides, they wonder if they are trying a new remedy - for the time that it lastsor if they the replace by a nine - a delicate operation. At this point, the debate on the future of our pensions system is similar to a debate of engineers.

Presented by technocrats, the dilemma is this: should a systemic reform or parametric reform In other words, should be quite radically change our annuity system in which paid pensions are a function of the number of years of contribution or can we just change once new cursors: periods of insurance, the premium rate, the level of pensions, age of, to quote the main

The orientation of the pensions Board (COR) published today even a report that illuminates in part this debate. It is devoted to so-called "by points" pension plans (plans additional Arrco and Agirc) and systems operated by individual accounts so-called "notional" (that of the Sweden). The COR in details the advantages and disadvantages, without deciding, but deny the feasibility. Supporters of the status quo institutional hold that these regimes are not the miracle solution because they do not disappear the demographic risk.

In fact, in distribution as capitalization, the performance of the "retirement investment" is always, in fine, determined by the ratio between the number of contributors active and inactive recipients. But plans by points or by individual accounts on those by annuities, offer the advantage of being more governable. Regularly, when deficits arise or threaten to arise for the Arrco and Agirc the managers adjust the value of "point" and the "purchase price". In Sweden, during the period of crisis which led to more abrupt movements, the sliders are adjusted continuously. The search for the financial equilibrium is there not give rise to "great nights" mobilizing for months political power, social partners and civil society.

This self-regulation of the pension system is what won for the first time one of the stakeholders, the CFDT. Parametric reform or systemic reform, this will be the first debate. And yet, the first topic is not.

Because, in one case as in the other, the fruits of change arrive too late, much too late. Technically, moving from a regime in annuities to a plan by points takes about twenty years. Inevitably, change the periods of insurance or the age of retirement only produces very progressive effects. It is a specific retirement: time for reform is more that elsewhere. Initiated in 1993 by Edouard Balladur, taking account of the 10, but of the best 25 years in the calculation of the retirement of the private database plays in full since 2008. Determined by the François Fillon in 2003, at 41 years of contributions by 2012 should have a real impact around 2020.

This constraint can be explained easily: reforms affect that waves of departing retired, not the huge mass retirees already gone, which creates a terrible inertia. Except to identify the contributions, that excluded Nicolas Sarkozy, reform in 2010, therefore, work to 2030. Ruining the 2003 scenario, which was to switch to old-age insurance, unemployment insurance resources, the economic crisis significantly near the horizon of the blast. It advanced him for ten years. 25 Billion euros of annual global deficit (all schemes combined) originally expected for 2020 are already achieved. Counters had been handed over to zero late 2008 when the accumulated deficit was transferred to the Fund for amortization of the debt.

But, since then, between 2009 and 2010, the only basic scheme of the private sector will be reconstructed between 18 and 20 billion euros deficit, and experts expect a dozen billion additional euros in 2011. The pace at which is widening the hole of the old-age insurance is unprecedented. Currently, ten private retreat is not funded: on about 100 billion euros of pensions paid each year, 10 billion are paid to credit. In other words, the future of our pensions is already behind us.

Also, the appointment of 2010 will be a success not only if it giving birth to a beautiful reform for 20 years but first if it leads to solutions for today. The increase in the levies being excluded, lower pensions seem excluded, there are few tools. Among them, a sharp decline in the legal age, which would differ in the years to come, leaving generations close to assert their rights.