But the Bersani Decree is only a first test

A curious legend circulates in the intellectual circles of Bologna. But is it really a legend It is said that when Romano Prodi was still classical high school student Galvani, breeding ground of the good local bourgeoisie, his classmates had become accustomed to touch his skull when they had to go to the table. So was born the reputation of the "Professore" baraka Its first three months to the Government have not refuted his reputation of lucky man. First, the victory of the "Azzurri" July 9 football World Cup, then the resumption of industrial activity and, finally, unhoped-for upwelling of tax revenue: at first glance, seems to smile at the new head of the Italian Government since his lean victory in legislative elections in April.

And yet, few are those who bet on the longevity of the head of the Union of the centre-left, uncertain, sixty-seven year old charisma, today at the head of an unlikely coalition of 11 Parties. Right, but also in some circles of the mainstream Italian left, is expecting the next day of the elections fall inevitable and necessarily imminent this old heir of the Christian democracy, prisoner of his motley coalition. The Anglo-Saxon press did not hesitate to brandish the spectrum of output of the euro. But three months after the actual installation of his Government, is that "professore" is good and it is the Cape. That of a moderate reformer faithful to its programme pragmatic, modest and without daring, synthesis of liberalisation and social justice. In the space of thirty days, the Prodi government prides as well to pass its Decree-Law on the liberalisation of 4 July 2006 aimed at modernizing large segments of the sector of services (liberal professions, pharmacies, insurance, taxis...) while strengthening the fight against tax evasion. Some observers, such as the European former at the competition Mario Monti, visibly seduced by the "Merkel method", have deplored the absence of prior concertation which has forced the Government to partially pull back on the front of the taxi licences. But it is the "Prodi method": the small keys converging to a result set. The employers regretted excessive shyness in worrying lack of momentum. But the Bersani Decree is only a first test.

The amateur Marathon who loves nothing as well as run in combination Lycra and surrounded by his circle of faithful in the gardens of villa Borghese, in Rome has so far taken in default the Cassandras from all sides. Of course, this does not mean that "professore" is from an accident of course. Nothing is ever acquired in Italian political life. Scheduled for the end of September, the test of the passage of the 2007 budget, coming also difficult that delicate with a forecast deficit of 4 and a debt at 108 of GDP in 2006, will be crucial. But eight years after the fall of his first Government in October 1998, Romano Prodi took the bottle. He learned to be wary of his best friends in politics which often are his worst enemies. The Prodi II Government team has carefully dosed. It has significant revival elements, such as Enrico Letta (Marguerite) and Pierluigi Bersani (left Democrats economist), including the French left would do well to emulate. Above all, by elect Fausto Bertinotti, the turbulent leader of Rifondazione Comunista, Chairman of the House and entrusting foreign to Massimo D'Alema, "professore" was able to neutralize its main two "disruptive elephants." Taking to the game of international politics, the Chairman of the Democrats of the left Massimo D'Alema, still a little "Italian Fabius" despite his genuine Europeanism, developed his own political ambitions in mute.

Many respects, Romano Prodi is the anti-Sarkozy. There is in him or will break, or capacity of pushing the codes, or narcissistic fascination for the media. On the contrary. After five years of rule berlusconien, il knows that its assets are elsewhere. For example in its ability to reassure an electorate saddens and infantilisé by five years of media populism. Even to make the new with the old and transform its "soft leader" pseudo-statut vector of social consensus. "Romano Prodi is neither very specific program and much ammunition, said political scientist Yves Mény, President of the European Institute in Florence." Its main strength is the indispensable man, linchpin of a system without which everything collapses. It draws its strength from the weaknesses of the system: there is no party that can do accept its leader as the leader of a whole and, in the current state, the only alternative is the return of Berlusconi. "Mény,"professore"can at best hope to create a new"Christian democracy of centre-left"through the creation of a new"party Democrat"on the horizon for 2009.

But attention! Prodi is perhaps not as fragile there in the air. "Having a flexible conception of power does not mean be a soft policy", said the editorial of "L'Espresso", Giampaolo Pansa. In these uncertain alternating periods where election results are played to the millimetre, the ability to reassure the middle class and create social links may prove valuable. Provided knowledge to provide the support of the social partners and economic forces in the North of the Italy, traditionally attached to its benefits. Absence of a grand coalition with Merkel, which already dream some centrists , Romano Prodi promised the return on the "serious Italy" stage setting priority to clean up public accounts. But if the momentum is too wait, there is a risk of falling back into a "boring Italy" speaking both reforms without ever.