The black page of the crisis may well be finally turned in employment, according to statistics released yesterday by Insee. The unemployment rate within the meaning of the international Labour Office (BIT), which had reached the record of 10 at the end of 2009 for the full France, settled at 9.7, down by 0.2 of a point. On the only metropolis, he returned to 9.5 in the first quarter to 9.3, corresponding to 2.6 million people seeking employment, available in two weeks and having not worked in the week.
The Minister of economy, Christine Lagarde, "welcomed this retreat ...". "for the second consecutive quarter. She found him "consistent with the return of net creation of jobs for six months." These developments "reflect the progressive initiation of a virtuous circle linked to the return of growth in the second quarter", she welcomed, adding that it "proves the effectiveness of the policy in the fight against unemployment the Government". The Minister also noted the decline in the unemployment rate of seniors, to 6.1 in the second quarter, was 0.5 point less.
This decline, to connect with the resumption of job creation which is confirmed in the second quarter, is even more interesting that it is accompanied by a decrease in the partial unemployment. It concerned that employees in the second quarter, 126.000 is 0.5 of persons in employment, compared to 0.8 in the first quarter.
It must nonetheless be interpreted with caution. It seems to indicate that atony of the growth in the first quarter, where GDP has risen by 0.1, has not caused the outage could be feared on the front of the employment, which usually reacts with a quarter of delay. But the Insee statistics indicates a trend coming for the second time in a row contradict that given by the aggregation of monthly statistics of pole job from April to June on the unemployed of category A, whose definition yet joined the ILO, and the number would have increased. But you should know that the public employment service is not based on a survey on a sample, such as the Insee, but on registration at the unemployment. Then the Statistical Institute said in its publication, after the enlargement of its survey sample, the margin of error on his estimate remains more or less 0.3 point.
Not yet created jobs
Moreover, statistics published yesterday by Insee are a question mark on the evolution of the labour market. Registered improvement is indeed taken by the rise of precarious contracts, CSD or acting. They occupied 6.6 aged 15 - 64 in the second quarter of 2010, compared to 6.4 in the first quarter. Is not illogical, to the extent where it is their decline which has largely fueled the spiral of unemployment in 2008 and 2009 and where assisted jobs which have been widely used to mitigate the effects of the crisis since the end of 2009 are part of. As noted yesterday the Vice President of Unedic, Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux on LCI, "rising unemployment has stabilized but economy recreates yet jobs, acting except". It remains to know if the indefinite term contracts will take the relay or if it will attend a phenomenon of substitution. The IFA were 49 15-64 years in the second quarter, to 0.5 points only from the floor of 48.5 reached in mid-2006, when their level in the early 2000s was 49.5.
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