An achievable objective according to opinion polls

One year after the general election, which enabled him to push towards the exit of the Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, Angela Merkel is facing both quite perilous regional elections. Next Sunday, voters in Berlin will elect their new Senate and those of the Eastern Land of the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Regional Assembly (Landtag). In both cases, things are not very well for the Federal Chancellor and his Christian Democrat (CDU) party.

Lack of true challenger

In the capital, the head of the list of the CDU, Friedbert Pflüger, fifty years, has almost no chance of beating the outgoing Mayor, the flamboyant Socialist Klaus Wowereit, fifty-two years, in power since 2001 in a coalition with the radical left PDS. The Christian-Democrat formation is credited for 21 of the vote (compared to 23.6 five years ago), while the respective "scores" of the SPD and the PDS would be, according to the latest survey, 32 and 16. It is not impossible that the outgoing mayor be obliged to broaden his coalition with the Greens, credited by 16 (compared to 9.1 in 2001).

Klaus Wowereit, who claims his homosexuality and his taste for the holidays and showbiz, benefits from the absence of a true challenger and, if judged by its popularity rating is not blame little bright economic footprint: with 17.4 percent of unemployed, Berlin has one of the highest unemployment rates of the reunited Germany. The city, which is imprisoning slowly but inexorably, is saddled with debt. Now, its debt exceeds EUR 64 billion. The only interest payments represents annual puncture of EUR 2.4 billion.

If Angela Merkel seems to be of illusions about the outcome of the Berlin vote, she has never hidden the importance it attaches to the Land where she is a member. She also visited seven times the last few months in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to help his party to become the first political formation in the eastern region of 1.7 million inhabitants. An achievable objective according to opinion polls. The CDU led locally by a relative of the Chancellor, Jürgen Seidel, is indeed credited for 33 of the vote. The SPD Minister President Harald Ringstorff and his ally PDS assigned, them, respectively 29 and 18 of the vote in the polls. A grand coalition of CDU - SPD could perhaps succeed in the current coalition "Rot - Rot" (SPD - PDS).

A costly barbecue

But this possible bulging of the CDU has all chances to be tarnished by the rise of the neo-Nazi party NPD. This training, which has been his campaign on the themes of "work, family and country" exploit the difficulties of all kinds that beset the region hope to cross the threshold of 5 of the votes necessary to be represented in the regional Parliament.

The next increase of 3 points in the rate of VAT, school closings, the hardening of social assistance, the maintenance of a high rate of unemployment (18.2), the cost of the visit of George Bush and Stralsund to mid-July (more than 20 EUR for a huge barbecue) are arguments used by an extreme-right party.

A breakthrough of the NDP would certainly damage the image of the Chancellor, who began to play a major role on the international scene.