The electoral Alchemy of 2012 is to write

Can we dream - politically - better than this crisis, just shake the European common currency Nicolas Sarkozy has been at the outset to take profits, he had six successful months no initiative to curb his declining popularity. With this mixture of intuition, daring and stage he had already shown two years ago, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the French President has been able to appear as a major international game player. With apparently first positive impact in the polls. He succeeded in pushing European inertia and show enough conviction to make the weekend of 8 and 9 may lead to a credible solution likely to reassure the markets (of less temporarily). He played for the difficulties of its partners, but never put them at odds. Short, he was able to regain a share of the reactivity and the driving force that had made his mark in 2008. The episode is even better that Nicolas Sarkozy has just decided to make international the heart of its reconquest of the opinion for the 2012 presidential. With a dream: find a little of the aura that had given him his management of the financial crisis, when the France presided over the European Union. The head of State plans to launch Act II of his five-year term next fall, the outcome of the reform In the greatest secrecy - thriller on his possible candidacy forced-, the scenarios of "the after" was initiated.

The policy above all

The tone is reform: can it be otherwise for a President of the Republic who was elected on its ability to change things After retirement, the Executive tackle dependence, will continue to modernize the country and to seek budgetary savings. It is the "mid-2011", that is to say six months before the presidential election, that "it no longer makes the policy" (Nicolas Sarkozy may 5 members). This is for the speech. In reality, Word appears to have been given to lift the foot as early as next autumn (a year and a half before the election), as the slide several leaders of the majority. The head of State wants more open socially risky sites. So it provides none. And that he bet on an economic recovery that would stain positively the reforms undertaken over the past three years. It promises even a "pause" legislation as soon as the loop next budget period, during which Parliament will have to review the legislation appropriated since 2007, and evaluate. Two goals in this operation: "neutralize the Parliament", said a leader of the UMP deputies demanding since long a less loaded agenda; and create a "statutory waiting: it creates a legislative deficit to recreate an appetite for reform".

Because the essential for Nicolas Sarkozy will also play on the international scene: in November 2010, the France chairs the g-20 for one year. Financial regulation, morality of markets, new monetary order are on the program. And if everyone knows that international stature is a necessary but not sufficient condition to a candidate for the Elysee, he will take care to topics likely to have a national impact, such as agriculture, and portrayed himself as a "Savior" of the financial world become "crazy." Left to do much. Henri Guaino, his Special Adviser, set the tone last week: "without him, nothing would have happened" on the euro, he said on RTL.

"All aboard"

Who said Act II of the quinquennium, said Government reshuffle. Contemplated by Nicolas Sarkozy will be "massive", he repeated to his relatives. Five months before probable, difficult to say what it will be, but one thing is certain: rumors are well underway. The UMP and the Elysian consulting team could be affected. The Secretary General of the Elysee, Claude Guéant, is often cited for the Ministry of the Interior. Raymond Soubie, social Advisor, could estimate its accomplishment once validated the pensions reform. And the UMP, the President of the Republic would appoint a new Secretary General (Luc Chatel), Xavier Bertrand, making his return to the Government. For Matignon, the maintenance of François Fillon is not totally excluded. But Nicolas Sarkozy live lately poorly good held in the polls. "It is the only Prime Minister who will be most popular Government that it came", grinding a figure of the UMP. Replacement, several names are circulating, including those of Eric Woerth ("it is solid, agrees well with the President and has an image of budget seriously, an asset in the period", defends Jean-Pierre Raffarin) iconoclast Jean-Louis Borloo and Christine Lagarde whose image international continues to climb. Alain Minc champion the choice of a woman, persuaded that it is between Martine Aubry and Ségolène Royal that is at stake, the Socialist candidate. Some Jean-François Copé the UMP rivals would not askance arrival at Matignon, convinced that the test of facts would necessarily lose its credit experience. But Nicolas Sarkozy will not try to engage in the campaign with a man of confidence The leader of the UMP Deputies is in any case to thwart what it appears to be regarded as a trap. Several times he that he was not interested. For campaign, ask in Gatherer: it is on this track that seems to work the President, eager to form a Government "when everyone is on board", including those who hear a discordant path for some time. "Sarkozy has put the foot Stirrup a generation of Ministers, but they are too weak," said a leader of the majority, who believe that the head of State will seek to orchestrate the "return of the professionals", as Alain Juppé, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Gérard Longuet, or... Jean-François Copé. One of the major issues of the fall will be whether if Nicolas Sarkozy has "changed" at the return to a more classic design of the sharing of roles between the Elysee Palace and the Government. End of the "hyperprésidence" Nothing does the augur, for the moment, actually.

Project hidden for a term "protective."

The last - but major - step in this reconquest is only embryonic. What project will cover the candidate Sarkozy, to prepare And when Today, everything is hidden: as long as possible, the head of State wants to show the French that he was working to improve their situation. As nothing is said, everyone starts on the ranks. The potential "feathers" abound. Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, for the UMP, has committed a "benchmarking" work and reflection on the "values". Henri Guaino and Alain Minc, the two most present advisors in the media lately, began - separately - to throw ideas on paper. The club generation France of Jean-François Copé works at full speed. And personalities such as Valérie Pécresse or Laurent Wauquiez want to play a role: the first is that its "Tuesday of Descartes" lead to "new concepts", the second is mandated by the UMP to reflect on the "social right". ' In any event, the reflection will engage as late as possible. Ideological humus, it is, there are in the compilation of the speech of the President. "If campaign, the approach will be then will correlate to 2007", prevents Franck Louvrier, Nicolas Sarkozy communication advisor. The latest possible also, because the positioning of the future candidate is far from being resolved. François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac have both been re-elected posing in "father of the Nation", after a first reform mandate. The temperament of Nicolas Sarkozy and the situation of the France enable play this map The idea in any case is not taboo.

The head of State recently used the second "protective quinquennium" expression to loyal members. "Steering gear on the left, is what it enjoys the most", one of the most listened advisers continues. Should also find the winning alliance of 2007 between the mainstream right and people's right, despite the disappointment of the latter reflected the increase of the national Front (this is what pleads to him pollster Patrick Buisson) Or must it seek a new Alchemy to 2012, with the centre-right lost since the virtual disappearance of François Bayrou Electoral experts believe these voters from the centre that are positioned to the right but do not Nicolas Sarkozy want 10. For the moment, everything is open. Nicolas Sarkozy is working the ground lost since 2007. It is to forget the "France of plants" that he has not answered his promise of purchasing power, it presents six months security questions at the heart of all his speeches. But he also leaves his majority undermine little by little the tax shield, one of the "markers" of its action, on which the "social" right had lately of hard to hide his discomfort. The electoral Alchemy of 2012 is to write.