Economists are unanimous that the euro is in danger

Economists are unanimous that the euro is in danger. A monetary union necessarily requires transfers of capital from rich areas to poor areas and displacement of people as between American States. The euro should be completed by a political union with a minimum central budget certainly greater than the current 1 of European GDP national added. The current crisis is indicative of this architectural error of starting. As long as this "solidarity" is not built in marble, is inherently fragile and she will be attacked by the financial markets, not without reason economists.

In a debate on the organized Franco-German couple, Tuesday 1 June, the Embassy of Germany in Paris, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing challenged that it should go so far. He departed the project of "economic government", also vague, and is held in "coordination". The former President welcomed the agreement of the Governments of the May 10 creating "the European stabilisation mechanism", an agreement which includes "all that needs to be done." Mr Giscard d'Estaing said he regretted that the Community institutions are poorly made, with a Commission "absurd", and that missing "great cross investments between the France and the Germany leading to a slow merger between the two". But to save the euro, the agreement of May 10 is enough.

It should be noted that this agreement contains four components: a strengthening of the stability and Growth Pact, a crisis mechanism (with 500 billion EUR over 250 of the IMF), coordination of budgetary policies and a timetable for reduction of deficits. It must be added an enhanced regulation of financial markets.

When it he objected the reasoning of the economists and the Greek or Portuguese difficulties, former President replies "what small countries". In other words, if the Germany and the France go together, monetary Europe will hold. The crisis will be overcome. The essential "political union" is this one, "closeness" to be cherished.

This optimistic view was supported by the German industrial Gerhard Cromme, guest star of this Conference. The agitation of the markets will increase, according to the President of the Councils of monitoring of ThyssenKrupp and Siemens. Europe is a bizarre construction, it is consistent with any pre-existing designs, starting with those of the economists. But the euro is in the interest of all, Germans first and "they know". In other words, worth that worth, Europe forward in a historical movement certainly punctuated by crises but pursuing the path of integration.

Economists and their too theoretical books have wrong Politics, history, and its internal forces are best preachers of the European future In these times of doubts and anxieties, was well want to think. We support the vision giscardienne: Europeans, stay optimistic!

All right. But are still three remarks. A first against the Japanese foil. Here is a country that looks like us, old industrial empire awash debt (200 of GDP worse than ours) and which is mired in deflation. In the Japan, the economy is victim of politics, with a ruling class, corrupt and indecisive, unable to overcome the excesses increasing Japanese society: casualization of work, aging, Bled pensions and health systems. Europe suffers exactly same headaches: the social State credit is to rethink, the political class lack of height.

Then, the markets. Europe is made under the duress of the Soviet threat, it is under that of the markets, neatly noted Mr. Cromme. It's just. Except that traders are an evil real when the Red Army did, here, a potential. The actual attack on the South-European side is really expensive of the Greece to the Spain. The Franco-German couple divided much delay in answer. This is pulling down the growth of all.

The final note that is also the time: growth slow, slow, Europe lags when China and other galopent. In the accelerated pace of the world, the baroque side of European democratic construction becomes a brake.