We easily imagine what would have happened without the euro

Nice symbol: the Slovakia, small growth of Eastern European countries, entered the club of the euro yesterday, anniversary of ten years of the single currency. A sixteenth welcome member for a euro so often decried at least in France sometimes accused to fuel the rise in prices, sometimes interfere with exporters... But, since the financial turmoil hit Europe, foreign currencies to the single currency have been severely chahutées. The proud British pound lost 25 of its value since the beginning of the year. Transferor to a brief moment of depression, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, entrusted to the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, that, if Britain had adopted the euro, it would know not now these monetary horrors. In short, the single currency remained stoic in the break-up, was made more attractive. She indeed perfectly played his role of "shield" against speculation. "We easily imagine what would have happened without the euro." Other currencies mark would in particular refuge to the detriment of autres des autres, en le franc détriment, en le franc détriment, en en le franc détriment le franc détriment franc détriment des autres des autres servi particulier servi particulier served particular explains Caroline Newhouse - Cohen, an economist at BNP Paribas.

Growing interdependence

If the dollar remains the dominant currency, the euro has emerged as his challenger both bond markets and reserves (see opposite). It has other hits to his credit. "Stability prices and low dispersion of inflation are part of historical successes of the euro area", explains the OFCE, disingenuously, that adds that the moderation in prices was also meet in the euro area countries: Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom.

Same observation to clean up public finances: the euro area countries have reduced their deficits since 1999 at least until the financial crisis... seeming attest of the virtues of the stability pact, but he was similarly in three European countries that have turned his back on the euro. However, only 15 countries sharing the single currency have seen their debt to deteriorate... Some economists have found a "convergence of economic cycles in the euro area. This strong "correlation" proves the growing interdependence of the major economies of the euro area, explained Clemente de Lucia in a study published by BNP Paribas. Another contribution of the euro, difficult to recognize both the European currency has been accused of added products for everyday life: the new transparency of prices and the removal of the volatility of exchange rates have caused, according to Antoine Berthou, economist with Cepii, a convergence of prices downward in the euro area.

Liabilities against exchange rates

So far, promised economic growth has not been meet. According to Jean-Paul Fitoussi, OFCE: "the euro seduced, while the eurozone disappoints." "Ten years, the annual growth is close to 2 in the euro area, half a percentage point less than during the period 1979-1991", yet by oil shocks and stock market crisis period. The United Kingdom, the Sweden and the Denmark have done better, not to mention the United States.

The euro, nor, was not a bulwark against unemployment, remained above 8 in recent years. One of the reasons for this soft growth not the only lies perhaps in the passivity of the euro with respect to exchange rates. Thus, recalled OFCE, during its ten years of existence, the euro is is "appreciated most of the time in phases of weak growth, and depreciate when growth was strong," a development exactly contrary to what the economic interests. The euro too often suffered the fluctuations of the market and used as a "variable of adjustment" of the international monetary system dominated by the dollar. This situation has contributed to "exacerbate the race for competitiveness within the euro area", the best example being the Germany which, without a more flexible exchange rate, has relied on the wage moderation to save its competitiveness and maintain its world market share.

The case of the Ireland or the Spain is other examples of dysfunction. Suffering from inflation higher than the average of the euro area, they have benefited during years of very low or negative real interest rates, which contributed to swelling of the housing bubble, today cause of their diving in the recession.

These few examples show that urgent requests of the countries to adopt the euro, starting with the Hungary and the Baltic States, are greeted with caution by central bankers. Since entering the club of the euro penalized by a lack of competitiveness, too much inflation or overvalued exchange rate condemns painful internal adjustments and highlights the difficulty the management of the entire euro area.