Be remembered that this figure amounted to 4

Used for five years to ever-increasing performance that Mipim (international real estate professionals market) in Cannes was every year more in value, the French market for the offices suffered during 2008 the aftermath of the global crisis, and 2009 looks already, she also, in net decline. Transactions which had fallen by 11 between 2007 and 2008 in Ile-de-France, to 2.35 million square metres, could fall, to fall to 1.7 million square metres. "They were only 225,000 square metres to mid-February against 564.000 for the first quarter of 2008", said Olivier Gérard, President of Cushman & Wakefield France, stressing this slight decrease. He said that the number of transactions in January he also decreased by half, from 189 catch leases in the same period of 2008-89 only this year. Several large transactions were still lively market, in particular those signed defence by GDF Suez to 11,000 square metres in the Tower B and Suez Environment for 42,000 metres square in CB 21, the GAN ex-tour rehabilitate land regions. "Demand has certainly declined but we are not in a sharp break," tempers Maurice Gauchot, President of CBRE France, whose teams would be on the point to two other major operations in addition to 10,000 square metres.

Investment in free fall

Projections of square metres of offices available to one year in Ile-de-France concern about 5 million square metres to end of 2009, according to Atisreal. "Be remembered that this figure amounted to 4.8 million square metres to late 1993 to bring to a park which was then 40 million square metres, when it lists 50 million today", said Alain Béchade, Professor at the Conservatoire national des arts et métiers.

The increase in supply has begun: end Council of Ile-de-France, 2008 vacancy rate was 5.6 when he was only 5 end 2007 and could, according to Christophe Pineau, Director of studies in Atisreal, exceed 7 in December. Recording rate of QCA end of 2008, the central district Paris business Paris 4,1 Paris 4,1 Paris 4,1 Paris 4.1 experienced quartier order 23, when the offer of the region increased by 13. Only the defence and the first Northern Crown still know a decrease in the vacancy rate to reach end of 2008 respectively 3.7 and 7.9. "The business district of Defense which accumulates the future lack of immediately available new supply projects", confirms Christophe Pineau. In fact, the only new building that will be delivered in June, is the Praetorium, promoted by Capital & Continental (Arte Charpentier Architects) and it will provide 10,000 square metres to the rental, which could approach 600 euros the square metre per year. The real problem of the Park is its obsolescence: it affects 80 of the surface in a financial context that allows more rehabilitation and defers or freeze projects sponsors white.

Investments in real estate of entreprise is are collapsed by 56 between late 2007 and late 2008, to do, according to figures of Immostat, to 13.5 billion euros in France, should decrease, though at a pace. Less than 200 million euros were placed during the first six weeks of 2009, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Credit restrictions affect particularly large operations. "The current trend let consider amount volumes placed in decrease of even 20, a figure of EUR 10 billion at year end," prognostic Olivier Gérard. Yields rates continue to rise following an increase of 30 on the year 2008, which were seen to be average at end December around 6.5 in the capital region. Element invested with this situation: According to firm Savills, present for several years German took second place on the market in 2008 (more than 12 of commitments) and show a few weeks ago, confirms Boris Cappelle, its Associate Director, a renewed interest in the French Park "premium". "The increase in the rates of return opened a door giving access to exceptional investment opportunities," says Benoît du Passage, CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle France." Hope that the door will be wide open in the fall.

This pious wish engages on the level of the values of assets. Index Edhec-IEIF real estate for business France following their evolution has, after ten years of uninterrupted increase ( 80 between 1997 and 2007), decreased by 9,22 on the year 2008 with an acceleration in the fourth quarter and still from 1.38 in January 2009. "The fact of having a monthly cue point should avoid the effect of paralysis which had characterized the last crisis", analysis Guy Marty, Director General of the Institute of real estate and land saving, stressing that this tool allows real estate and financial operators follow way very reactive the dynamics of the market. "For the time being, the potential acquisition candidates prefer spend little capital to which they have access to their existing heritage to preserve the value of work, repositioning or a redevelopment", reflects François Trausch, President of GE Real Estate Europe from Western, very attentive to the evolution of rents that will determine the yields. "If the sellers agree today on the adjustment of the levels of rates, they diverge on the foreseeable evolution of rents", prevents Boris Cappelle.

Rental: CHF force line

Interntional average rents grew slightly from 314 to 321 euros the square metre per year, excluding charges, with spikes to more than 800 euros on top operations of range of the neighbourhoods of Paris business and 270 euros offers in new surfaces in Val-de-Marne. The 2009 challenge lies in the effects of very strong growth in the index of the construction on which the rent of the real estate business are indexed: 10.3 on a year year!, is more than 10 times of inflation. Kind of discrepancy questioned contracts for the rental of the past and may cause the rent review as soon as they exceed 25 of the amount of origin (article l. 145 - 39 of the Code of commerce). To remedy this skid, a new index of tertiary activities (As'ilat) rents based on the index of commercial rents, could be adopted before the summer.

Affected by this index phenomenon of rent reviews which forces the line, some buildings record departures of companies for savings. "Many owners choose to renegotiate their rental conditions rather than face a vacancy of their premises," said Philippe Leigniel, Chairman of DTZ France. With disadvantage, a decrease in transfers which limits the opportunities for the rehabilitation of the Park and its necessary modernisation.

Real estate agents expect a decrease in rental values amplified by an abundant supply in a crisis environment. The release of the surfaces of second hand weighs on the structure of the available supply and the uncertainty about the evolution of rent poses the question of the future of the very large tertiary programs, such as heart of Orly. South of Paris, on an area of 15 hectares, the work of the new business district should start after the summer, provided they find tenants under the leadership of Aéroports de Paris with land of the regions and Altarea. The first deliveries are expected end of 2011, developing this date 103.000 square meters of buildings including 80,000 metres square offices HQE, hoteliers and 5,000 complexes 18,000 square metres of shops and services. The amount of the investment is estimated at 450 million euros out of hotels, of which 50 funded by ADP and the balance between Altarea and land of the regions. A second operation of urbanism is also provided on 12 municipalities located between Orly and Vitry-sur-Seine. Projects that leave dreamer but giving time to the cycle of real estate to recover.

In the meantime, said Olivier Gérard, "the year 2009 will be a year of consolidation for the users to reduce their costs rather than mergers and acquisitions, as was the case in recent years". However, in this sullen context, the squirrel and the Banques Populaires came close, which is not bound to generate real movements and new releases of surfaces.

In the spring of 2009, the challenges of the real estate business are many. "Affected but not sunk," said Cyril Robert, Director of studies of Knight Frank, who prefers to remember that, "during the year 2008, banks and insurance, the first affected by the bankruptcy of the"subprime"consumed to move to more rational premises many more offices in 2007, total 360,000 square meters contracted in Ile-de-France in large transactions, compared to 210,000 m2 in the previous year.

All scenarios are possible. The optimists who believed that the trough of the wave would have reached in the spring and provided a reboot as soon as the summer correct their copy. In the dependence of the economy, the end of the year may be seen the exit of the tunnel unless she saves a worsening of the situation.