And this may lead to stopping further scholarships

Here are the themes that are likely to impose to traders and investors in the week ahead:

1 RELAXATION TO THE EDGES OF THE RUBICON

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) said was that it assumed that this would not happen. And it is not the only view. As a whole, the financial markets seem convinced that American politicians will succeed in finding an agreement allowing the United States to escape a "technical defect" which, if any, would be the first global economy will not be able to pay interest on its debt for a few days. US Treasury borrowing and the dollar have not responded to the quarrel of the debt ceiling. However, an official of the Federal Reserve found that a mini-défaut of the United States was the biggest risk that weighed on the world economy. And China, the first creditor to Washington, believes that Republicans and Democrats "play with fire" by failing to agree on an increase of the ceiling. Finally the rating agency Fitch has stated that the United States could retain their AAA note if they were forced to a default, even if it is technical. Similarly, stakeholders on the foreign exchange market and stock markets seem not worried more by the prospect of a Greek default - courts of the States loans and CDs show however that bond investors are less serene. In the coming weeks, these two assumptions - and therefore the assets - can be largely attributed to evil.

2 SHARING THE BURDEN

The respite for the countries the most indebted of the euro area has been of short duration. The yields of sovereign bonds issued by these States as well as the cost to protect themselves against a possible default (CDS) of the latter are near or have reached new records because of the obstacles which remain installed on the path to a resolution of the Greek crisis. While major stakeholders in the discussions - the ECB, the European Union and the Germany - doesn't always agree on the terms of a second to help in the Greece, market players are increasingly to be convinced that the solution adopted will well involve private creditors. Statements made by the agricultural credit or the German subsidiary of the US bank JPMorgan Chase suggesting that the private sector should have its say in any new Greek rescue support this hypothesis. But no decision on this subject is expected before ministerial meetings European planned between 20 and 24, the bonds of "peripheral" in the euro area countries should continue to evolve in a volatile manner in the days to come, vulnerable in the slightest "excessive" connection of politicians or rating agencies. The Italian and Spanish bond yields also approached imperceptibly potential turbulence zone. Investors will have the opportunity to see if these assets are able to take remotely the Greek difficulties on the occasions of auctions scheduled by Rome and Madrid, respectively Tuesday and Thursday.

3 DIVERGENCE OF VIEWS

While the Federal Reserve appears to be more concerned about the apparent slowdown in growth United States that inflationary pressures, the bad pass by the most vulnerable members of the euro area is not deflects cap the ECB. She remains determined to tighten monetary policy to combat the increase in the consumer price and, in the eyes of the market, an increase of rates in July is almost a fact. The data that will be published next week as well in the euro area in the United States should, once again illustrate the gap that exists between the two central banks in their own way to assess the prospects for rising prices, and especially after the ECB raised its projections of inflation for 2011 inflation.

4 OFFENSIVE FORCE

The strength of the Swiss franc, the yen and the euro is a concern for the political and financial authorities, already faced with the problem of growth which is in trouble. As the Bank of the Japan (BoJ) or the Swiss National Bank (SNB) hardened the tone on the foreign exchange parities, investors took no position for an intervention of one or the other Central Bank. On the options market, implied volatilities are still rather low and risk in the short term swings have not changed. About a month, they are far from extreme levels reached before the intervention collaborative on the yen to the countries of the G7 intervened in mid-March. But if the dollar/yen parity passes under the 79 yen, then foreign exchange dealers to Godfather in the options market for cover. The SNB holds meeting on 16 June and is sure to point out the risks that weigh on the growth record level of the Swiss franc.

5 NOTICE OF STORM

The & S P 500 and the STOXX Europe 600 are in freefall, spinning any right to the said territory "oversold", following concerns over the US economic slowdown and euro-zone debt crisis. Current valuations may seem cheap but investors would perhaps do well not to dispose of their cautious approach after the President of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that there be no "QE3" at the expiry at the end of the month, of "QE2". The stock markets of emerging countries, while they did so well that their equivalent of developed countries since the beginning of the year, should also suffer from the end of the Fed's quantitative easing program. If investors decide, in fact, do not increase investments in the coming weeks, banks trading revenue will reduce be shrinking, which, in turn, will affect the season of second-quarter results. And this may lead to stopping further scholarships.