In early October Insee had relied on growth of 0

Recession page is turned, but the French growth remains low. In the third quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 over the second, according to the first results of the quarterly accounts of the Insee published Friday. Comparable to that of the previous quarter, this slight increase shows that "the French activity is recovering", noted economist Olivier Bizimana, of Credit Agricole. It will take time for the France returned to growth rates of the pre-crisis. And even if Christine Lagarde hope than the "it eventually year on hats wheel", the Minister of economy warns that "out of the crisis should be gradual in 2010". Currently under consideration in Parliament, the draft budget 2010 provides a 0.75 GDP growth, although François Fillon recently indicated that it should rather be between 1 and 1.5.

In this context, the Government's priority is clearly to stimulate growth, even if leave spinning deficits longer that Brussels is. The short term, now a part of the support measures taken during the crisis. Medium term, by launching the grand loan, the President of the Republic justify to fund future expenditures and adjust the growth potential. Thursday morning, members of the Juppe-Rocard Commission submit Nicolas Sarkozy their report advocating a public investment of 35 billion euros.

The good surprise of the employment

If the return of growth in the second quarter after a year of recession was a happy surprise, growth in the third quarter has it proved disappointing: it is two times lower that economists expected and much less RAM than displayed by the Germany ( 0.7). In early October, Insee had relied on growth of 0.5 and the latest manufacturing output figures published a few days earlier had let hope increased even more.

The industry has actually rebounded ( 2.3) but this was not the case of other sectors, such as the production of energy (-3,1) and construction (-2,1). This downturn in the construction industry has resulted in a decrease in investment in housing households and public works.

In reality, "the main drivers of French growth remain weakened in the third quarter", notes the Credit Agricole. The total household consumption remained stable (after having increased by 0.3 in the previous quarter). In decline for the sixth consecutive quarter, the overall investment is a little more contracted (to-1.4). Contrary to what some expected, businesses have not yet begun to rebuild their stocks, even if the destocking end and weighs almost activity (0.1 point of GDP). In the end, the growth is due almost solely to foreign trade, pulled by a strong rebound in exports ( 2.3). "This is in part to the automotive sector, since the French constructors have benefited indirectly measures of premiums case-sensitive implemented by our neighbours", said Bruno Cavalier, Oddo securities.

If the level of growth has disappointed, the stabilization of salaried employment, on the other hand, was a good surprise. After you have removed some 400,000 positions between early 2008 and mid-2009, the French economy have destroyed only 5,000 jobs in the third quarter. The Secretary of State for employment Laurent Wauquiez, welcomed the "positive Harbinger" of a recovery in the labour market. A sign it is watching with caution, the crisis showed the extreme volatility of the acting, also reflecting the distrust of companies on the sustainability of the recovery of the economy.